With just 5,400 electric buses registered in 2025–26, India has a long way to go to meet its EV30@30 ambitions. A shift in policy approach, better financing and stronger industry regulations could help accelerate the transition.
Delhi: Fuel price volatility and worsening urban air pollution have become pressing challenges for India. Yet, the country remains far behind its electrification targets in the segment of buses, despite e-buses offering a promising solution to both the issues.
India’s 2030 targets of EV30@30 suggest, 40% of bus sales in India should be electric.
However, according to an analysis by ITDP India, based on data from Vahan Dashboard, in 2025-2026, only 4% of the buses registered were electric in the country. This approximately translated to 5,400 e-buses registered in the last financial year. As annual vehicle registrations closely mirror the annual sales and capture a more realistic picture, the analysis uses the same.
These figures indicate that India is yet to reach the pace needed to meet its 2030 electrification target. Furthermore, in order to reach the target of 40% of bus sales being electric, the e-bus sales will have to increase to a whopping 62,352 units, a year, by FY 2030-31, which is nearly 12 times more than the current rates!
Projections by ITDP India further suggests that this a highly challenging target to achieve in the next four years. According to the projections in the “Accelerating Clean Mobility through India’s ZEV Opportunity” report, India’s overall e-bus registration share, will likely grow upto only 4.7% in 2026-27 and 7.3% in 2028-29. In 2030-31, which is the target year for EV goals, it is likely that only 17,814 units will be registered, giving e-bus a market share of only 11.4% in terms of annual registrations share.
| Year | Projected Bus Registrations Based on CAGR | Projected E-bus Registrations Based on CAGR of 32% | Projected E-bus Registrations Share (%) | Required e-bus Registrations to meet target | Actual e-buses Registered |
| 2025-26 | 1,21,904 | 4560 | 3.7% | 18,286 (15%) | 5400 |
| 2026-27 | 1,28,048 | 5988 | 4.7% | 25,610 (20%) | |
| 2027-28 | 1,34,502 | 7865 | 5.8% | 33,625 (25%) | |
| 2028-29 | 1,41,281 | 10,328 | 7.3% | 42,384 (30%) | |
| 2029-30 | 1,48,401 | 13,564 | 9.1% | 51,940 (34%) | |
| 2030-31 | 1,55,881 | 17,814 | 11.4% | 62,352 (40%) |
These projections are based on the registrations trends we saw in the e-bus segment between 2022-24. In those two years, the compound annual growth rate or CAGR was 32%. The projections had shown in 2025-2026, only 3.7% of total bus registration will be electric.
What this indicates?
The industry needs to move beyond a largely voluntary, demand-driven approach that relies on subsidies to encourage buyers. Instead, stronger supply-side incentives and regulations are needed to encourage both manufacturers and buyers to adopt electric buses.
A phased approach could help make this transition manageable. Governments could begin by setting electrification targets for State Transport Undertakings (STUs) and government fleets, before extending them to staff and school buses, and eventually private stage and contract carriage buses. Such milestones would give the industry time to build capacity while ensuring that electrification moves beyond voluntary adoption.
Financing the transition, beyond subsidies
However, regulations alone cannot accelerate the transition. The high upfront cost of electric buses remains a significant barrier to adoption. An e-bus can cost nearly ₹1 crore, compared to ₹40–60 lakh for a conventional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) bus.
This cost difference becomes particularly challenging for private operators, who account for nearly 93% of India’s bus fleet. Accessing loans to purchase electric buses is difficult, with financiers often charging higher interest rates because of the perceived risks associated with the technology.
The absence of an established resale market and a residual value framework for e-buses adds to this uncertainty. Without clarity on how much an electric bus will be worth at the end of its operating life, financiers factor in a higher risk premium, making loans more expensive for operators.
To address this, government incentives need to go beyond subsidies offered at the time of purchase or leasing. A stronger focus on enabling affordable financing could make a much bigger difference.
Mechanisms such as interest subvention and a residual value framework for electric buses could reduce borrowing costs, improve financiers’ confidence and make e-bus procurement more financially viable. These measures could also prove more economical for government finances than relying solely on upfront subsidies.
From ambition to action
India’s e-bus transition needs more than ambitious targets. It requires a coordinated push involving manufacturers, bus operators, financiers and governments. Supply-side regulations, phased electrification mandates and accessible financing will be critical to creating an ecosystem where electric buses can scale.
The opportunity is significant, but so is the gap. If India is to make electric buses a mainstream part of its public transport system by 2030, the shift needs to happen now.
Written by Aditya Rane, Deputy Manager, Transport Systems and Electric Mobility and Donita Jose, Deputy Manager, Communications
Frequently Asked Questions
- 1. What is India’s EV30@30 target for electric buses?
Under the EV30@30 goals, 40% of annual bus sales in India are expected to be electric by 2030. This requires annual e-bus registrations to reach approximately 62,352 units by FY 2030–31.
- How many electric buses were registered in India in 2025–26?
India registered approximately 5,400 electric buses in FY 2025–26, accounting for just 4% of total bus registrations. This is significantly below the pace needed to meet the 2030 electrification target.
- What are the key challenges slowing down e-bus adoption in India?
High upfront costs, expensive loans, limited financing options and the absence of a resale market or residual value framework are major barriers. Private bus operators, who account for nearly 93% of India’s bus fleet, face particular challenges in financing the transition. Affordable loans, interest subvention and phased electrification mandates can help accelerate adoption.
